India's Soyoil Imports Surge to Record High, Palm Oil Dips to Five-Year Low (2024/25)

India's Soyoil Imports Surge to Record High, Palm Oil Dips to Five-Year Low (2024/25)

India's soyoil imports are predicted to skyrocket by 60% to a record high in 2024/25, driven by cheaper prices relative to palm oil. Consequently, palm oil imports are expected to hit a five-year low. This surge in Indian soyoil purchases will likely bolster global soyoil prices while putting downward pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures.

Key Import Trends

Dealers estimate soyoil imports will reach 5.5 million metric tons, a significant jump from 3.44 million tons the previous year. Palm oil imports are forecasted to decline by 13.5% to 7.8 million metric tons, the lowest since 2019/20. Sunflower oil imports are also projected to decrease by 20% to 2.8 million tons. Despite the shifts in specific oil imports, India's total edible oil imports are anticipated to rise by 1% to 16.1 million tons.

Factors Driving the Shift

The price dynamics have shifted, with palm oil previously commanding a premium now being replaced by the more affordable soyoil. This shift is due to tight palm oil supplies in Malaysia and Indonesia earlier in the year. Additionally, soyoil imports from Nepal are expected to exceed 600,000 tons due to tax advantages under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement.