Alleged US-Russia Peace Plan for Ukraine Emerges: Kyiv Faces Demands for Territory & Military Curbs Amid Skepticism

Reports have surfaced from various international news outlets detailing an alleged 28-point framework, supposedly drafted by the United States and Russia, aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This purported plan would demand significant concessions from Kyiv, including territory and limitations on its military capabilities.

The revelations come amidst continued hostilities, highlighted by a devastating Russian strike on Ternopil, Ukraine, which left 26 people dead. The timing is particularly notable as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was scheduled to meet with US army officials in Kyiv the day after these reports emerged.

Is the Plan Official?

Despite widespread media coverage, including reports from Axios and the Financial Times, the alleged peace proposal lacks official confirmation. The US has not publicly announced such a plan, and Russia has explicitly denied its existence. Reuters, citing unnamed sources, indicated that the US had “signalled” to Zelenskyy that Ukraine might need to accept a plan involving territorial and weapon concessions, potentially in exchange for US security guarantees.

Skepticism surrounds the plan's origins, with an unnamed official quoted by the Financial Times describing it as “heavily tilted towards Russia” and “very comfortable for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.” The same report suggested that only US and Russian officials participated in its drafting, with Ukraine being informed via Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff.

However, Keir Giles, a Russian military expert at London think tank Chatham House, cautioned against readily accepting these reports, suggesting they might be part of a “Russian information operation” that Western media has unwittingly propagated. Witkoff's cryptic response on X to an Axios story about the plan – “He must have got this from K.” – further fueled speculation, with “K” potentially referring to Russian ally Kirill Dmitriev or Trump's envoy Keith Kellogg.

Official Reactions

The White House has refrained from commenting on the alleged plan. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, indicated on X that the US is exploring “potential ideas for ending this war based on input from both sides,” acknowledging that “achieving a durable peace will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions.”

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, following talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, did not directly address the alleged proposal. He stressed the importance of coordinated efforts with partners and effective American leadership to end the conflict, noting that only the US and Trump possess “sufficient strength for the war to finally come to an end.”

Key Terms of the Alleged Plan

According to Axios, the 28-point plan would grant Russia full control over Crimea – seized in 2014 and still disputed – and the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk). Currently, Russia controls all of Luhansk and most of Donetsk, while Ukraine retains 14.5 percent of Donbas territory, including parts around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The plan reportedly requires Ukraine to withdraw troops from Donbas, establishing it as a demilitarized zone.

Further, the plan allegedly imposes long-term limits on the size of Ukraine's military and its possession of long-range missiles. In southern Ukraine, where Russia controls significant portions of Zaporizhia and Kherson, existing battle lines would be frozen, with future negotiations determining the return of any territory.

Implications for Ukraine and European Security

Analysts view the proposed plan as highly unfavorable to Ukraine. Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at the defence studies department at King’s College London, noted that it would likely mandate a 60 percent reduction in Ukraine's armed forces (to under 400,000 personnel) and prohibit long-range strike capabilities against Russia. Such terms, she stated, would officially recognize Russian-controlled territories and Crimea, profoundly disadvantaging Kyiv.

Keir Giles described the plan as “catastrophic to European security,” arguing that reduced military size and weapon limitations would leave Ukraine critically vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Trump's Shifting Stance

Former President Trump's position on Ukraine's territorial concessions has evolved. Late last month, he suggested freezing the war along current battle lines, a proposal initially supported by Ukraine and its European allies but rejected by Russia. This marked a shift from his September 23 statement, where he believed Ukraine could reclaim all territory with EU and NATO support. Earlier, in August, Trump had suggested both sides would need to cede land.

During a February Oval Office meeting, Trump reportedly pressed Zelenskyy to be more “grateful” for US support and indicated that Ukraine would need to give up territory, emphasizing Ukraine's vulnerable position. Despite his campaign promise to end the war within 24 hours of his presidency, Trump's peace efforts over the past 11 months have been unsuccessful.

What's Next?

Given the plan's perceived bias towards Russia, analysts like Marina Miron anticipate its rejection by Ukraine and European partners. She expects a new cycle of negotiations, with Ukraine and its allies presenting their own demands. Zelenskyy reportedly developed his own plan with European allies during his recent visit to Turkiye. If the alleged US-Russia plan is indeed real, it is poised to trigger significant diplomatic turbulence.