Tejas Fighter Jet Crash at Dubai Airshow: India's Export Ambitions & Defense Self-Reliance Face Setback

Tejas Fighter Jet Crash at Dubai Airshow Casts Shadow on India's Export Ambitions

The recent crash of an Indian-made HAL Tejas fighter jet at the prestigious Dubai Airshow has cast a shadow over India's aspirations to become a global exporter of defense technology. Occurring on November 21, 2025, the incident, which tragically resulted in the death of Wing Commander Namansh Syal, unfolded before an international audience of potential arms buyers. This public setback delivers a significant blow to the jet's carefully cultivated image as a symbol of indigenous innovation.

A Public Setback for 'Make in India' Ambitions

The Dubai Airshow, a key event for the global aerospace industry, serves as a crucial platform for nations to showcase their military prowess and defense capabilities. For India, the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) program represents a four-decade-long journey towards self-reliance in defense. Its public failure at such a high-profile event, as noted by experts like Douglas A. Birkey, executive director of the U.S.-based Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, sends "quite the opposite signal" to the intended message of national achievement. While such incidents have historically affected aircraft perceptions, Birkey also suggests that high-order political realities often supersede one-off events in fighter sales, implying a potential for recovery.

Production Hurdles and Domestic Reliance

Initiated in the 1980s to replace India's aging fleet of Soviet-era MiG-21s, the Tejas program has been plagued by prolonged development. State-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) has received domestic orders for 180 advanced Mk-1A variants, but deliveries are yet to commence, primarily hampered by supply chain issues concerning GE Aerospace engines. A former HAL executive, speaking anonymously, candidly stated that the crash "rules out exports for now," redirecting immediate focus towards fulfilling critical domestic demand. Before this incident, target export markets had included countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with HAL even establishing an office in Malaysia in 2023.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) faces a critical shortage, with its fighter squadrons dwindling from an approved strength of 42 to just 29. The Tejas was envisioned as a primary replacement for retiring MiG-29s, Anglo-French Jaguars, and French Mirage 2000s. However, persistent production bottlenecks are forcing India to consider immediate off-the-shelf purchases, potentially including additional French Rafales, and evaluating competing offers for 5th-generation F-35s and Su-57s. Despite these challenges, India still plans to expand its existing fleet of approximately 40 Tejas jets already in service.

Regional Rivalries and Long-Term Vision

The crash occurred amidst a backdrop of regional rivalry, with India's neighbor Pakistan also prominently present at the Airshow. Pakistan announced a provisional agreement to supply its JF-17 Thunder Block III fighter, co-developed with China, to a "friendly country." The JF-17 was prominently displayed as "battle-tested" – a stark contrast to the Tejas, which Indian officials have stated was not actively deployed in recent conflicts due to safety considerations associated with single-engine aircraft. Furthermore, the Tejas did not participate in India's annual Republic Day aerial display this year for similar safety reasons.

Despite the immediate export setback, experts like Walter Ladwig, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, emphasize the Tejas's profound long-term significance. Its true value, he argues, lies less in direct foreign sales and more in the robust industrial and technological base it helps create for India's future combat-aircraft programs. This perspective aligns with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's overarching vision of 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' (Self-Reliant India) in defense, even if the journey is proving arduous and marked by public challenges.