A significant European counter-proposal to the United States' draft 28-point Ukraine peace plan has emerged, shedding light on the intricate diplomatic efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine. This document, seen by Reuters, was primarily drafted by Europe's E3 powers – Britain, France, and Germany – building upon the American framework while introducing crucial modifications and deletions. The full text offers a comprehensive blueprint for a potential resolution, spanning security, economic, and humanitarian dimensions, indicating the depth of ongoing international negotiations.
Core Principles and Diplomatic Framework
The proposal begins by unequivocally affirming Ukraine's sovereignty, a foundational principle for any lasting peace. A cornerstone of the European vision is the establishment of a total and complete non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO, aiming to resolve long-standing ambiguities. Notably, the European draft omits a point from the US plan that stipulated Russia's expectation not to invade neighbors and NATO's non-expansion, indicating a shift in emphasis regarding future security architecture.
Following the signing of a peace agreement, the European proposal advocates for a direct dialogue between Russia and NATO. This dialogue would address security concerns, foster de-escalation, and explore opportunities for global connectivity and future economic collaboration.
Security Guarantees and Military Parameters
Ukraine is slated to receive robust Security Guarantees under the European plan. Crucially, its military size would be capped at 800,000 personnel during peacetime. The contentious issue of Ukraine's NATO membership is addressed, with the proposal stating it hinges on the consensus of NATO members, which currently does not exist. Furthermore, NATO would commit not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine during peacetime, though NATO fighter jets are envisioned to be stationed in Poland.
A significant element is a US guarantee that mirrors NATO's Article 5, albeit with specific conditions:
- The US would receive compensation for this guarantee.
- Ukraine would forfeit the guarantee if it invades Russia.
- In the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, in addition to a robust coordinated military response, all global sanctions would be restored, and any recognition for new territory, along with all other benefits from this agreement, would be withdrawn.
Economic Reconstruction and Russia's Reintegration
The plan outlines an extensive Robust Global Redevelopment Package for Ukraine, including:
- Creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in high-growth industries like technology, data centers, and AI efforts.
- The United States will partner with Ukraine to jointly restore, grow, modernize, and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
- A joint effort to redevelop areas impacted by the war, restoring and modernizing cities and residential areas.
- Significant infrastructure development.
- Mineral and natural resource extraction initiatives.
- A special financing package developed by the World Bank to accelerate these efforts.
Concurrently, the proposal envisions a progressive reintegration of Russia into the global economy. Sanction relief will be discussed and agreed upon in phases and on a case-by-case basis. The United States will enter into a long-term Economic Cooperation Agreement with Russia, focusing on mutual development in areas like energy, natural resources, infrastructure, AI, data centers, rare earths, joint projects in the Arctic, and various other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities. Russia will also be invited back into the G8.
Crucially, Ukraine is to be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.
Nuclear Stability, Energy Sharing, and Territorial Issues
Regarding nuclear matters, the plan reiterates Ukraine's agreement to remain a non-nuclear state under the NPT. The United States and Russia will agree to extend nuclear non-proliferation and control treaties, including Fair Start. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will be restarted under IAEA supervision, with produced power equitably split 50-50 between Russia and Ukraine.
A critical point addresses territorial integrity: Ukraine will commit not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means. Instead, negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the Line of Contact. Once future territorial arrangements have been agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply if there is a breach of this obligation.
Furthermore, Russia shall not obstruct Ukraine's use of the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached for grain shipments to move freely through the Black Sea.
Humanitarian Concerns and Governance
A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve pressing issues:
- All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on the principle of "All for All."
- All civilian detainees and hostages, including children, will be returned.
- There will be a family reunification program.
- Provisions will be made to address the suffering of victims from the conflict.
Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities. Additionally, Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.
Implementation, Monitoring, and Ceasefire
This agreement is designed to be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a "Board of Peace," chaired by President Donald J. Trump. There will be penalties for violations. Russia will also legislatively enshrine a non-aggression policy towards Europe and Ukraine. A joint Security taskforce will be established with the participation of US, Ukraine, Russia and the Europeans to promote and enforce all of the provisions of this agreement.
Upon all sides agreeing to this memorandum, a ceasefire will be immediately effective upon both parties withdrawing to agreed-upon points for the implementation of the agreement to begin. Ceasefire modalities, including monitoring, will be agreed by both parties under US supervision.
This detailed European counter-proposal highlights the complex and multi-faceted negotiations underway to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine, balancing security concerns, economic recovery, and international relations.