Europe stands at a critical juncture, facing significant decisions concerning its long-term security and the future of Ukraine. This urgency is amplified by the prospect of a potential US administration pursuing a peace deal that some fear could compromise established international norms and European interests.
While Washington may prioritize a swift resolution to the conflict, even if it entails recognizing Russian territorial gains, Europe's stake is far broader. For the European Union, the core concerns revolve around deterring further Russian aggression and guaranteeing Ukraine's enduring political and economic stability. A settlement that fails to achieve these objectives could profoundly jeopardize the bloc's own long-term security.
Europe's Growing Commitment & Financial Strain
The continent has already demonstrated a robust increase in its commitment to collective security. By last year, 23 NATO members were dedicating the target 2 percent of their GDP to defense. Furthermore, the alliance has set an ambitious new goal to elevate core defense spending to at least 3.5 percent of GDP by 2035, with additional investment planned for critical infrastructure and expanding defense industrial bases.
In terms of direct support to Ukraine, Europe has notably surpassed the US in total military aid since June 2022, allocating 72 billion euros ($83.6bn) compared to Washington's 65 billion euros ($75.5bn) by the end of April. However, even with this significant contribution, the increased European assistance is not enough to offset the ongoing standstill in US funding. Kyiv remains heavily reliant on Western fiscal aid to maintain governmental functions, and the immense bill for reconstruction continues to escalate with relentless Russian assaults. Estimates from February by the World Bank placed this cost at an staggering $524 billion (506 billion euros) – approximately 280 percent of Ukraine's 2024 GDP.
The Untapped Leverage: Frozen Russian Assets
To bridge this escalating financial gap and assert its influence over the outcome of any conflict settlement, Europe possesses a powerful, yet largely underutilized, tool: the vast sum of sovereign Russian funds frozen within its jurisdictions since 2022. The most substantial portion, an estimated 185 billion euros ($214.8bn), is held at the Belgium-based clearing house Euroclear, with the majority now in cash, making it readily deployable. An additional 20 billion euros ($23.2bn) in Russian government funds is frozen at Clearstream, Euroclear’s Luxembourg-based rival.
Dispelling Myths: Precedent & Legal Challenges
Despite ongoing European debates and delays, primarily fueled by hesitancy from the Belgian government and concerns over setting a "precedent," historical context reveals ample justification for such a move. During the Second World War, the United States seized government assets belonging to both Germany and Japan. Notably, Japan's assets were frozen even before the attack on Pearl Harbor, with the majority subsequently retained under the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty.
Furthermore, the Kremlin's threats of decades-long litigation against such confiscation are largely overstated. These threats often rely on outdated bilateral investment treaties that Moscow has previously failed to successfully invoke. Russia has a documented history of complying with adverse legal rulings when vital access to Western markets or assets is at stake. Crucially, numerous multi-billion-dollar claims against Russia are already pending in European courts. The most significant of these is the 2014 award to former Yukos shareholders, now valued at over $65 billion with interest, which the Netherlands' Supreme Court affirmed in October 2025 as final and enforceable against Russian state assets worldwide.
The Cost of Inaction and Future Risks
Europe's continued delays in acting on these frozen assets carry substantial risks. Each passing month of inaction not only increases the financial burden on European nations but also heightens the probability of Washington striking a deal that could significantly sideline European interests. The article warns of potential scenarios, such as a 28-point "peace plan" reportedly formulated by Kremlin insiders and endorsed by a Trump envoy. Such a plan could mandate Europe to provide an additional $100 billion, divert existing frozen Russian assets away from Ukraine's reconstruction, and impose further direct financial liabilities on Europe if Russia fails to uphold its commitments – a pattern observed in previous ceasefire agreements from 2014 and 2015.
By decisively moving to confiscate these assets, Europe can secure Ukraine's sustained financing, strengthen its own security posture, and gain crucial leverage in the complex negotiations over Ukraine's future, rather than passively awaiting external decisions that could compromise its fundamental strategic objectives.