Ukraine Peace Deal Nears: Donbas & Zaporizhzhia Remain Key Hurdles, Says US Envoy Kellogg
U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, recently declared that a peace agreement to conclude the protracted conflict in Ukraine is "really close." However, significant progress hinges on resolving two critical outstanding issues: the uncertain future of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region and the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, currently under Russian control.
The Path to Resolution: "The Last 10 Metres"
Kellogg, whose tenure as envoy is set to conclude in January, shared these insights at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California. He characterized the diplomatic efforts as being in "the last 10 metres," underscoring the most challenging phase of negotiations. The conflict, which escalated with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022 following eight years of clashes in Donbas, marks Europe's deadliest since World War Two and represents the most severe confrontation between Russia and the West since the Cold War era.
The envoy also highlighted the catastrophic human toll, describing the scale of deaths and injuries as "horrific" and unprecedented for a regional conflict. He estimated combined casualties for Russia and Ukraine to exceed two million, a stark figure given that neither nation publicly discloses verifiable loss statistics.
Contested Territories and Critical Infrastructure
Currently, Russia maintains control over approximately 19.2% of Ukraine's territory. This includes Crimea, annexed in 2014, the entirety of Luhansk, over 80% of Donetsk, about 75% of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, alongside portions of the Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
The issue of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, is particularly contentious. Initial U.S. draft peace proposals, leaked last month, suggested the plant, currently in cold shutdown, would restart under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervision, with electricity distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine. These 28-point proposals (now 27, according to the Kremlin) reportedly sparked concern among Ukrainian and European officials, who felt they accommodated Moscow's key demands regarding NATO and territorial control.
Intensified Diplomatic Engagement
Amidst these ongoing negotiations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy recently held a "substantive" phone call with former President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The Kremlin has indicated its expectation for Kushner to play a central role in drafting any potential peace agreement, suggesting intensified diplomatic engagement from the U.S. side as a deal approaches.