Prediction Markets Doubt Fast Recovery in Hormuz Shipping

Prediction Markets Skeptical About Hormuz Recovery

Prediction markets are skeptical that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal in the coming weeks, despite talk of possible Washington-Tehran diplomacy. Traders assigned a 39 percent chance that ship traffic in the Strait will 'return to normal' by the end of April, down from 77 percent on March 10. Meanwhile, Kalshi prediction market traders were more positive but still saw only a 46 percent chance before May 1, rising to just over half by May 15 and about two-thirds by June 1.

The Strait of Hormuz handles 20 percent of global crude oil transit and carries about 70 percent of Korea's crude imports from the Middle East. Since the U.S.-Israeli military strikes began on Feb. 28, Iran has severely disrupted trade between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea in response to these actions. Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun urged his Iranian counterpart to ensure safe navigation through the Strait and ease tensions. Iran informed the United Nations Security Council and International Maritime Organization that non-hostile vessels may transit the Strait if they coordinate with Iranian authorities.

Korea's crude oil imports from the Middle East are heavily reliant on the Hormuz route, making it a critical vulnerability for global energy security. Prediction markets reflect growing doubts about when the waterway will reopen and return to normal operations.