Trump, Harris, & Big Money Ignite Tennessee Special Election Battle | Dec. 2 Midterm Bellwether

High-Stakes Tennessee Special Election Draws National Political Titans

A seemingly low-profile special election in a deeply Republican Tennessee district has unexpectedly captured the national political spotlight. What was once flying under the radar is now a high-stakes contest scheduled for December 2nd, fueled by substantial financial backing from allies of President Donald Trump and a notable visit from former Vice President Kamala Harris. This race is being watched closely for its potential implications for the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.

The significance of this election stems from recent Democratic victories in the November 4th elections, which were widely interpreted as a public referendum on Trump's influence. Republicans are eager to shift this narrative, pouring resources into the Tennessee campaign and even extending an invitation for Trump to make an in-person appearance following a recent virtual rally. A less-than-dominant win, or worse, an unexpected loss in this typically safe Republican seat, would be a stark indicator of weakness, potentially emboldening Democrats in their quest to regain control of the U.S. House. Should a district like Tennessee's 7th congressional district appear vulnerable, Democrats might broaden their target list for future elections.

High-Stakes Funding and Key Candidates

Trump-aligned super PAC, MAGA Inc., has already reported spending over $1 million to bolster Republican candidate Matt Van Epps. A former Army helicopter pilot with combat tour experience, Van Epps has closely aligned himself with Trump, whose endorsement was crucial in his primary win. This marks MAGA Inc.'s first involvement in a campaign since the previous year's presidential race. Tennessee Republican Rep. Tim Burchett expressed concern about the timing of the election, just after Thanksgiving, fearing the party could be caught off guard.

On the Democratic side, State Rep. Aftyn Behn, a progressive community organizer, is also drawing significant national support. This includes a visit from Democratic Party Chair Ken Martin. Former Vice President Kamala Harris recently participated in a canvassing kickoff event in Nashville while on her book tour. Although the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee clarified it did not specifically invite Harris, and she did not appear alongside Behn, both spoke at different times during the same event. Libby Schneider, deputy executive director at the Democratic National Committee, emphasized that even if Behn doesn't win, a strong performance would be a significant boost for the party's efforts to flip the U.S. House in 2026. Schneider noted, "We continue to overperform in places where we have no business overperforming," citing an average 9 percentage point increase in Democratic candidate vote share compared to Harris's in four previous special House elections this year.

The District's Political Landscape

The special election was called following the retirement of Republican Rep. Mark Green, who first took office in 2018. Green secured a 21 percentage point victory in the district in 2024, a margin mirrored by Trump's performance. The 7th district was one of three seats redrawn in the 2022 redistricting process, a move aimed at diminishing the political influence of Nashville, the state's largest city and a Democratic stronghold.

Candidate Platforms and Controversies

Matt Van Epps, a former state general services commissioner, has echoed Trump's agenda, pledging his "100%" support to the president during a virtual rally. His platform includes lowering costs, supporting veterans, enforcing Trump's immigration policies, and backing rules preventing transgender women from competing in women's sports.

Aftyn Behn, who famously describes herself as a "pissed off social worker" and supported Bernie Sanders in 2020, gained notoriety for being removed from the Tennessee House gallery in 2019 for protesting a former speaker. Her campaign mirrors successful Democratic strategies seen in recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia, focusing heavily on affordability. A key proposal from Behn is the elimination of the state's grocery tax. At a recent Nashville rally, Behn declared, "If you are upset about the cost of living and the chaos of Washington, we are your campaign," aiming to unite a "coalition of the disenchanted." Behn has also criticized Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax and spending legislation and his tariffs, both of which Van Epps supports. Furthermore, she has called out Republicans' reluctance to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein, a stance that Van Epps initially opposed but later aligned with Trump after the president endorsed the measure.

External Influence and Outlook

The race is also seeing attempts by Democratic allies to undermine Van Epps. Your Community PAC, a group that has invested over $16 million in Democratic campaigns nationwide, is distributing mailers describing Van Epps as a "hedge fund billionaire-backed RINO" (Republican In Name Only), encouraging Republicans to vote for conservative independent candidate Jon Thorp. The bulk of Your Community PAC's funding originates from North Fund, a non-profit umbrella for left-leaning advocacy groups.

Conversely, conservative groups are targeting Behn. Conservatives for American Excellence, backed by prominent donor Ken Griffin, has allocated over $600,000 to advertisements opposing Behn. Club for Growth, a pro-school voucher organization heavily involved in the primary, is also spending $300,000 on ads, focusing on Behn's past remarks where she described herself as "radical."

Despite the significant influx of campaign funds and national attention, Tennessee political strategist Chip Saltsman, who is not involved in the race, still anticipates a victory for Matt Van Epps. However, Saltsman suggests the winning margin might be narrower than previous Republican performances, potentially causing "a little heartburn" for the GOP. He remarked that Republicans are "doing everything they need to do" to secure the seat.