Federal Shutdown Thwarts Full October Jobs Report Release
The U.S. Labor Department announced Wednesday that a complete October jobs report will not be released as planned, a direct consequence of the recent 43-day federal government shutdown. This significant disruption prevented the department from accurately calculating the national unemployment rate and other crucial labor market indicators.
Instead of a standalone October report, the department plans to integrate some available October jobs data—specifically, the number of jobs created by employers—with the comprehensive November jobs report. This combined report is now anticipated on , a couple of weeks later than its usual schedule.
Impact on Data Collection and Reporting
Typically, the department's "employment situation" report is published on the first Friday of each month. However, the extended government closure severely hampered data collection efforts, leading to a cascade of delays. For instance, the September jobs report, originally due on , is now slated for release this Friday.
The monthly jobs report comprises two primary surveys: a household survey, which gauges the unemployment rate, and an "establishment" survey of businesses, nonprofits, and government entities, which tracks job creation, wage growth, and other vital measures of labor market health. The Labor Department confirmed that the household survey for October could not be conducted because of the shutdown and, critically, cannot be performed retroactively. Fortunately, hiring data from employers (the establishment survey) was successfully collected and will be incorporated into the upcoming November report.
Scrutiny and Federal Reserve Decisions
Wednesday's announcement places additional scrutiny on the September jobs numbers, which will be the last full measurement of employment and unemployment available to Federal Reserve policymakers before their critical meeting. At this meeting, they will decide whether to implement a third benchmark interest rate cut for the year.
No Conspiracy, Just Consequences
The reliability of jobs data has recently been a point of contention. Following a disappointing July jobs report, President Donald Trump controversially dismissed Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer, the official responsible for data collection. However, McEntarfer herself quickly dismissed any notions of conspiracy regarding the current delay. She clarified on social media, "No conspiracy here, folks. BLS was entirely shutdown for six weeks. Payroll data from firms can be retroactively collected for October. The household survey cannot be conducted retrospectively. This is just a straightforward consequence of having all field staff furloughed for over a month."
AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber also contributed to this report.
